Calm session with a neutral regime (score +1.5): equities closed modestly higher, led by the Nikkei (+1.20%) and crypto (ETH +2.87%, BTC +1.36%), while the VIX fell to 15.8. The dollar softened and several S&P 500 correlations weakened sharply without actually flipping sign.

Neutral regime (score +1.5)

A calm, constructively biased session, but not strong enough to tip the regime into risk_on. The engine classifies it as neutral with a score of +1.5, supported by equities (+1) and the VIX (+1), a mildly bullish gold reading (+0.5), neutral credit (0), and the only drag coming from bond yields (−1).

What moved

Equities closed broadly higher, though with contained moves:

  • Nikkei: +1.20% (z=0.6)
  • EWP (Spain): +0.47% (z=0.3)
  • S&P 500: +0.42% (z=0.4)
  • Nasdaq: +0.29% (z=0.2)
  • DJIA: +0.29% (z=0.3)

In Europe, slight declines in FEZ (−0.09%) and EWG (−0.12%). In crypto, notable gains: ETH +2.87% (z=0.9) and BTC +1.36% (z=0.6). Brent rose +1.28% (z=0.4) while WTI slipped −0.19%. Gold pulled back −0.19%.

In currencies, EUR/USD advanced +0.56% (z=1.6), USD/JPY fell −0.93% (z=−1.9), and the broad dollar eased −0.38% (z=−1.4) — the highest z-scored moves of the session.

Context

Volatility. The VIX fell to 15.8 from 16.9, a −6.3% move on the session.

Curve. Both segments remain normalized: t10y2y at 0.35pp (672 days since the last crossover) and t10y3m at 0.71pp (266 days since the last crossover).

Credit. The high-yield spread remains tight at 2.70pp (z=−1.2), signaling calm in credit markets.

Dollar. The broad index trades at 120.7, +1.1% above its 50-session average.

Correlations (30 days). A notable weakening of historical correlations is observed, though without flipping sign: sp500–ust10y at −0.49 (previously −0.83), sp500–usd_broad at −0.30 (previously −0.78), and sp500–wti at 0.03 (previously −0.65).

Breadth. 60% of assets trade above their 50-day MA and 53% above their 200-day MA (15 assets). US indices, the Nikkei, and Spanish equities remain above both averages; BTC, WTI, gold, and EWG sit below both.

What to watch

  • High-z currencies: USD/JPY (z=−1.9), EUR/USD (z=1.6), and the broad dollar (z=−1.4) post the most extreme readings versus their yearly range, though still within informational bounds.
  • S&P 500 correlations with bonds, dollar, and crude: all have weakened sharply; none has flipped sign yet, but they are approaching breakout territory.
  • 200-day MA breadth at 53%: just above the midpoint, a narrow margin worth monitoring.