Markets

The state of every market at the last session’s close, colored by the severity Atalor assigns it — not by the sign of the move.

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Equities

S&P 500

7,515−0.8%

Nasdaq

25,873−1.6%

Dow Jones

52,499−0.3%

Volatility & breadth

VIX

15.0−5.1%

S&P breadth

47% > 50d MA67% > 200d MA

VIX term structure

0.81 · contango

Correlations

stable

Rates & credit

10y–2y curve

36 bp+1 bp

10y–3m curve

73 bp+2 bp

UST 10y

4.56%+2 bp

HY credit (OAS)

269 bp−1 bp

IG credit (OAS)

77 bp+1 bp

Fed Funds

3.62%+0 bp

Currencies

Dollar (broad index)

120.5−0.2%

EUR/USD

1.140+0.2%

USD/JPY

162.4−0.1%

Commodities

WTI

80.9+3.6%

Brent

86.5+3.8%

Crypto

Bitcoin

62,254−2.3%

Ether

1,775−1.7%

Active signalstriggered over the last five sessions

Jul 14notablebrent_wti_spreadSpread Brent-WTI: -0.04 $ (invertido (Brent por debajo del WTI); mediana histórica +3.5 $)

Historical contexttoday vs the 5-year average and the extremes of three crises · history since 2006

Indicator	Today	5y avg	Percentile	Bear 2022	Covid	2008
VIX	15.0	19.2	34	36.5	82.7	80.9
10y–2y curve	36 bp	8 bp	31	−51 bp	12 bp	127 bp
10y–3m curve	73 bp	−8 bp	38	−17 bp	−20 bp	195 bp
Baa spread (Moody’s)	158 bp	181 bp	6	242 bp	431 bp	616 bp
UST 10 years	4.56%	3.68%	91	1.63%	0.54%	2.08%
Fed Funds	3.62%	3.61%	72	0.08%	0.04%	0.08%
S&P 500since 2016	7,515	5,177	100	3,577	2,237	—
WTI crude	81 $	79 $	66	76 $	−37 $	30 $
US unemployment	4.2%	4.0%	30	3.9%	14.8%	8.7%
Weekly claims	215k	228k	14	250k	6,137k	665k
Financial conditions	−0.52	−0.40	44	−0.10	0.30	3.07
30-year mortgage	6.49%	6.03%	85	7.08%	3.65%	6.46%
Inflation (CPI y/y)	4.3%	4.5%	87	9.0%	1.5%	5.0%
Housing permits	1,410k	1,537k	64	1,565k	1,079k	513k
Michigan sentiment	44.8	63.2	0	50.0	71.8	55.3

Each crisis column shows the episode’s stress extreme (the peak for VIX, spreads or unemployment; the trough for the curve, stocks or sentiment) within fixed windows: 2022 bear (Jan 3 – Oct 31, 2022), Covid (Feb 15 – Apr 30, 2020) and the financial crisis (Sep 1, 2008 – Mar 31, 2009). A “—” means the source publishes no history for that era. The percentile places today’s level within the full history. Data: FRED.

Economic calendardata releases and rate decisions Atalor watches

This week

Wed Jul 15

Financial conditions (NFCI)

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Thu Jul 16

US retail sales

Fed balance sheet (H.4.1)

Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac)

Weekly jobless claims

Fri Jul 17

Industrial production (G.17)

US bank credit (H.8)

Housing permits & starts

Coming up

Wed Jul 22

Financial conditions (NFCI)

Thu Jul 23

ECB rate decisionBCE

Fed balance sheet (H.4.1)

30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac)

Weekly jobless claims

Fri Jul 24

US bank credit (H.8)

Housing permits & starts

Tue Jul 28

Money supply M2 (H.6)

Wed Jul 29

Financial conditions (NFCI)

Fed rate decisionFed

Thu Jul 30

Fed balance sheet (H.4.1)

US PCE & personal income

30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac)

Weekly jobless claims

Fri Jul 31

US bank credit (H.8)

Consumer sentiment (Michigan)

Tue Aug 4

Bank of Japan balance sheet

Wed Aug 5

Financial conditions (NFCI)

Thu Aug 6

Fed balance sheet (H.4.1)

30-year mortgage (Freddie Mac)

Weekly jobless claims

Fri Aug 7

US jobs report

Consumer credit (G.19)

US bank credit (H.8)

Read the full report →