Tuesday, July 14, 2026 · last session: Mon Jul 13
VIX15.0
S&P 5007,515
Nasdaq25,873
Dow52,499
HY269 bp
10y–2y36 bp
UST 10y4.56%
Dollar120.5
EUR/USD1.140
WTI80.9
Brent86.5
BTC62,254
ETH1,775
Brent+3.8%
WTI+3.6%
EUR/USD+0.2%
Bitcoin−2.3%
Ether−1.7%
Nasdaq−1.6%
VIX15.0
S&P 5007,515
Nasdaq25,873
Dow52,499
HY269 bp
10y–2y36 bp
UST 10y4.56%
Dollar120.5
EUR/USD1.140
WTI80.9
Brent86.5
BTC62,254
ETH1,775
Brent+3.8%
WTI+3.6%
EUR/USD+0.2%
Bitcoin−2.3%
Ether−1.7%
Nasdaq−1.6%
Semavor
The world economy, every day
NEUTRALDaily report · Tue Jul 14

Stock Losses Without Panic: VIX Falls as Wall Street Retreats

Wall Street closed broadly lower —the Nasdaq fell 1.55% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.79%— but the VIX slid 5.1% and credit spreads stayed compressed, painting a session without clear stress signals. Oil surged (WTI +3.57%, Brent +3.81%) while traditional correlations between the S&P 500 and bonds, the dollar, and oil continued to weaken.

Read the full report

News

What the Fed and the ECB announce, in plain termsAll news →
ECBJul 14, 2026

ECB selects 36 payment providers for digital euro pilot

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced it has selected 36 payment service providers (PSPs) from across the euro area to take part in the digital euro pilot. According to the ECB, the Eurosystem received more than 50 applications following a call for expression of interest launched in March 2026, reflecting strong market interest.

ATALORJul 14, 2026

Atalor Detects Brent-WTI Spread Inversion, Now at -$0.04

Atalor, Semavor's analytics engine, has detected an unusual inversion in the Brent-WTI oil spread. As of July 6, 2026, Brent traded at $69.56 per barrel and WTI at $69.60, producing a spread of -$0.04, compared with a historical median of +$3.5.

FEDJul 12, 2026

Fed Releases Minutes of June 16-17, 2026 FOMC Meeting

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held June 16-17, 2026. According to the Fed, minutes are typically published three weeks after each policy decision.

The macro backdrop

Weekly analysis · updated Sun Jul 12Weekly →
Inflation
4.3% year over year

US CPI, year over year. Details in the weekly analysis.

Employment
Unemployment 4.2% · +57k

US unemployment rate and monthly payroll growth (nonfarm payrolls).

Rate path
Fed 3.62% · ECB 2.25%

Official rates of the Federal Reserve and the ECB (deposit facility).

Markets at a glance

quietnotablealert
US equities
−0.8%
Nasdaq
−1.6%
Dow Jones
−0.3%
VIX
15.0
HY credit
269 bp
IG credit
77 bp
10y–2y curve
36 bp
UST 10y
4.56%
Dollar
120.5
Oil
86.5
Bitcoin
62,254
Ether
1,775
EUR/USD
1.140
USD/JPY
162.4
Fed Funds
3.62%
Breadth
47% > 50d MA
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