Quiet session: Europe shines as crypto and gold retreat and neutral: risk in equities firm but bitcoin, XRP and gold retreated, while credit and the curve stayed calm.el sesgo dólar y correlaciones inusuales.y de sesgo neutral: la renta variable europea (España y Alemania) destacó frente a un Wall Street plano, mientras el oro y las criptomonedas retrocedieron con fuerza. El crédito y la curva de tipos se mantuvieron en calma, y las correlaciones habituales entre bolsa, bonos y dólar siguieron debilitándose.la la renta varieuropea empujó al índice mientras cripto y oro cedieron..tten régimEspaña y Alemania destacaron.Régsesgrégimen neutral: bolsa firme en Europa (España y Alemania), Wall Street plano, oro y criptomonedas a la baja.n régimen neutral con bolsa europea destacada, Wall Street plano y caídas en oro y criptomonedas.el crédito y la curva sin tensión..tranquila y neutral: la bolsa europea, liderada por España y Alemania, destacó frente a un Wall Street plano, mientras el oro y las criptomonedas retrocedieron con fuerza. El crédito y la curva de tipos se mantuvieron en calma, y las correlaciones habituales entre bolsa, bonos y dólar siguieron debilitándose.de régrégrégrégsesgo neutral.a summary field properly below y simen neimen neutral.summary negimen neutral, con la renta variable europea destacando frente a un Wall Street plano, mientras oro y criptomonedas retrocedieron con fuerza. El crédito y la curva de tipos se mantuvieron en calma, mientras las correlaciones habituales entre bolsa, bonos y dólar siguieron debilitándose.

A quiet session with a neutral tilt. Wall Street closed largely flat: the S&P 500 edged up 0.02% (z=−0.1 vs 1 year) and the Nasdaq slipped 0.18% (z=−0.2), while the Dow Jones added 0.51% (z=0.6). The contrast came from Europe, where equities showed more energy: the Eurostoxx (FEZ) rose 0.71%, Spain (EWP) climbed 1.64% (z=1.3) and Germany (EWG) gained 1.61% (z=1.4), the standout relative performer of the day. Risk appetite was selective: while equities held firm, gold fell 0.87% and cryptocurrencies suffered notable losses, with bitcoin down 2.51% (z=−1.0) and XRP down 4.20% (z=−1.2), the largest move of the session. Oil also retreated, with WTI down 1.19% and Brent down 1.26%.

In equities, the Nikkei (+0.50%, z=0.2) tracked the constructive Asian-European tone, while the US lagged with near-zero moves. In FX, the euro and yen barely budged against the dollar (+0.01% and +0.00% respectively), but the broad dollar index eased 0.16% (z=−0.6). In commodities, WTI and Brent fell in tandem, widening the spread between the two to 5.62 dollars, above the historical median reference of 3.5 dollars. Gold lost 0.87% (z=−0.6). The crypto complex took the biggest hit: besides bitcoin and XRP, ether fell 3.19% (z=−0.9) and solana 3.35% (z=−1.0).

The yield curve remains normalized: the 10-year–2-year spread sits at 0.34 percentage points (689 days since the last inversion cross) and the 10-year–3-month spread at 0.69 points (283 days since the cross). Credit shows no stress: the high-yield spread stands at 2.79 percentage points, at a z=−0.6 deviation from the one-year average, meaning it's tighter than usual. The broad dollar trades at 120.71, 0.55% above its 50-day moving average, keeping its underlying uptrend intact despite the day's pullback. The VIX term structure remains in contango (VIX/VIX3M ratio of 0.91, with the VIX at 18.6 versus 20.5 for VIX3M), reflecting calm in near-term implied volatility. Usual market correlations are weakening: the 30-day link between the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury moved from −0.74 to −0.37, and the S&P 500's correlation with the broad dollar fell from −0.70 to −0.20, a sign that assets are trading with less cross-dependence than usual. Market breadth is moderate: 53% of tracked assets trade above their 50-day moving average and 59% above their 200-day average, across 17 assets.

The Brent-WTI spread has widened to 5.62 dollars, up 3.22 dollars over the past 20 sessions, above the historical median of 3.5 dollars. The breakdown in usual correlations continues: the S&P 500's link to the 10-year Treasury has narrowed from −0.74 to −0.37 and its link to the broad dollar from −0.70 to −0.20, moves worth tracking if they persist. In crypto, XRP's decline (−4.20%, z=−1.2) was the sharpest move of the session among all tracked assets.